13th [Netflix]

Educate yourself. Educate your children. Educate the people around you.

Bracing. Harsh. Terrifying. Honest. Brutal. Unbelievable. Shocking. Disgusted. Disbelief. Informative. Educational. Hopeful. These are just a few of the many words that suitably described this 2016 documentary by Ava DuVernay. And now, 4 years later, it is still relevant. Chillingly relevant.

As the documentary's tagline highlighted, "From slave to criminal with one amendment" and DuVernay and her interviewees strived to illuminate how America has gotten itself to its current - albeit 2016, although still extremely relevant in 2020 - state. There was a lot of information here and DuVernay had presented them in a clear, but not always concise, chronological order featuring a rotating cast of talking heads. 

The information provided comes from both sides of the partisan benches but not necessarily from both sides of the argument. DuVernay did try to insert some counter-balance into the documentary, but it was apparent from the editing that she had proportioned less weightage to those interviews. This document was an educational tool that leaned heavily on her point-of-view, which undeniably was where my own politics laid, but there was no space given for counter-rhetorics.  Nonetheless, it effectively accomplished its role in a brisk 100 minutes, i.e. to educate. Anything longer than that might strain the attention span of the ignorants, the casually curious, the on-the-fencers and lose recruits to her side.

Do listen to what DuVarney's interviewees have to say. They are not your typical celebrity activists, but, as their titles suggest, smart and invested people who are passionate about what they are saying and what they believe in. Perhaps, the only true "celebrity" will be Angela Davis, an icon of the Civil Rights Movement.

Do also watch the 30 minutes, Netflix-produced Oprah Winfrey interview with DuVernay after the documentary. It was equally illuminating and reassuring, and may answer a few questions that you may have had whilst watching 13th. Although DuVernany's mildly-rehearsed answer to Oprah questioning her about the ending of the documentary did help me to understand why it was ended that way, albeit I am still not entirely convinced that it was the right ending. 

Educate. Learn. Be Better.

Network

Having had watched the fantastic stage play starring Bryan Cranston in Broadway last year, it was inevitable that comparisons would be made whilst watching this scarily prescient 1976 pitch-black satire. The biggest difference was that in Sidney Lumet's film, the three leads - Faye Dunaway, Peter Finch and William Holden - shared the screen almost equally with possibly Dunaway as the first lead. Whereas in the stage play, Cranston was ostensibly the lead with Tatiana Maslany and Tony Goldwyn (who has been aged down compared to Holden) as supporting characters. But what remained constant was the biting screenplay by Paddy Chayefsky which has hauntingly remained relevant now and chillingly foretold our current situation 40 years later. That was what made Network the play so relevant when it was staged.

Chayefsky's screenplay remained, to this day, a staggering tour de force. A bitingly funny satire not only about the newsroom, but also about how we consume culture and information. And the most piercing thing about it was that it was staggeringly relevant back in the 70s and still so bloody accurate in the new-20s! Our obsession with social media, the internet and fast culture simply replaced the 70s preoccupation with television and the burgeoning pop culture. So many great lines in the film and so many of them remained prescient and true till now.

Lumet's direction kept the film going at a brisk pace. The emotional entanglements never bogged down the satirical commentary and the supporting players like Robert Duvall (so very Duvall!), Ned Beatty and Marlene Warfield helped to keep the tempo going in their own scenes. Although Lumet did tend to veer towards the melodramatic at some points. 

Finch, a Best Actor Oscar winner for this role, was great in his role as Howard Beale who brought a different energy to Beale as compared to Cranston. Finch appeared to be more of a desperate, resigned revolutionary compared to Cranston's angry and ready-for-change prophet. Regardless, Finch was arresting and when he rants, he commanded the screen and everybody's attention.

Dunaway, also an Oscar winner for Best Actress, stole the show. For all of Finch's bluster and showboating, he was decidedly one-note. Dunaway, on the other hand, was a full blown concerto, a heady mixture of adjectives: brassy, uncompromising, brash, rash, sexual, smart, vulnerable, cynical. Here was a female character way ahead of her time and unapologetic for it. Kudos to Lumet, Chayefsky and Dunaway for giving life to this amazing character! Dunaway owned this film and very much deserved for Oscar for it. It was a pity they did not match her up against Finch. 

Holden, a fellow Best Actor nominee, had the quieter role. His Max Schumacher was more reserved and less showy, but was the emotional heart of the film. He represented the people of the older time who still cherished real emotional connect and not just the fleeting highs (and lows) offered by pop culture (and internet binges). His breakup scenes with Dunaway and Beatrice Straight (a Best Supporting Actress winner for an emotionally showy 5-minutes appearance) was an achingly honest bit of emotional vulnerability in a bleak tragicomedic satire.

Network was an utterly engaging and fascinating film to watch with a solid cast to match. A bleakly dark satire that delivered an emotional gut punch and (uncomfortable) laughs as it sent chills with its breathtakingly prescient insights.

Ordinary People

This 1981 Best Picture/Best Director winner was the directorial debut of Robert Redford and his background as an actor-turned-director really showed here. He gave the actors time to develop a scene and allowed them to shine and produce full, complex characters. 

The plot was relatively straightforward, and perhaps with the lens of the 21st century it seemed rather pedestrian. However, it was because of this simplicity that forced the actors to be front and center and carry the weight of the film. And the actors - Timothy Hutton (Best Supporting Actor winner), Mary Tyler Moore (Best Actress nominee), Donald Sutherland (robbed of a nomination!) and Judd Hirsch (Best Supporting Actor nominee) - were definitely up to the task, elevating this film to an actor's showcase.

Redford deserved kudos, especially as a first time director, for being able to wrangle such intense portrayals from his cast. 

Moore did an amazing, nuanced and measured performance, contrary to her usual The Mary Tyler Moore Show persona, and Sutherland, who was given the more showy role, had great moments and a truly, genuine and heartfelt catharsis at the end. 

Hutton, in his first film role, was a revelation. His performance contained multiple layers and the peeling of those defences to the true vulnerability and eventually to acceptance was believable and felt authentic, barring some histrionics during the therapy scenes, but mostly he did come across as a truly struggling teenager. Although Hutton may have won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, he was, in my opinion, truly the lead and main focus of the film. 

Therein laid the biggest issue of this film. It could have benefited more if Redford and Oscar-winning writer Alvin Sargent had decided clearly who were the film's main focus. Is the film going to be about Hutton's teenage character suffering from PTSD and survivor's guilt, and finding his way out, or will it be more abut Moore and Sutherland's disintegrating marriage as they navigate the aftermath of a family tragedy (or two). 

Redford as a first time director made some rather cliched choices especially in terms of music (it's Pachebel's Canon in D again...and again...and again), costume choices (all the beige!) and cinematography (lots of wide-angled shots followed by a zoom-in), but in all, his effectiveness in getting great performances from his cast trumped all that. 

Ordinary People still held up almost 40 years later, however, its portrayal of mental health illnesses and male-centric storytelling may have to be brushed up a bit.

87th Academy Awards (Oscars 2015)

Well, it is that time of the year. Not a bad crop of movies for 2014, but really nothing too memorable or spectacular. Most were rather low-key hits (the irony!). As usual there were snubs and with that comes the unexpected nominees, and this year's surprises were mostly not very pleasant. For every Jake Gyllenhaal, there is a Bradley Cooper and Steve Carrell; Jessica Chastain passed over for Meryl Streep; Selma (which I have not watched) is barely making a presence. But then again, it was also a good year for indies: Boyhood, Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and for the Brits: Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything, and Benedict Cumberbatch and Kiera Knightley for The Imitation Game.



Like every year, there are some locked-in winners already by this time of the year, and some races that are still too close to call. But as we all know, publicity and campaigning play as big a role as the actual effort/product, so as per usual, below are my predictions for the major awards for the 87th Academy Awards.

*Winners are highlighted in red. 

BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Who Should Win: Boyhood 

Who Will Win: Birdman

This is a tough category to call and it may depend a lot on who wins Best Director. In my opinion, Boyhood was the best movie of 2014. I loved the simplicity of the story but grandeur of vision. But how do you reward/differentiate between two excellent films where one had vision and heart, the other had skill, intelligence and insider-snark.

BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Who Should Win: Richard Linklater

Who Will Win: Richard Linklater
Who Was A Surprise/Snub: Bennet Miller may have been recognised at Cannes, but Damien Chazelle should have been nominated instead for Whiplash, No comments on Selma or its director Ava DuVernay since I have not watched it yet.

Like above, I think this year the Best Director and Best Picture will most likely split between Linklater and Iñárritu. Although the PGA, SAG and DGA awarded their top prize to Birdman, I think Linklater should be rewarded and recognised for his audacious vision of doing a 12-years stop-gap motion picture. Iñárritu's pseudo-one shot vision was great, but it was just as gimmicky as Linklater's without the vision.

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Who Should Win: Michael Keaton

Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Who Was A Surprise/Snub: Bradley Cooper first then Steve Carrell; Jake Gyllenhaal was robbed for his amazing work in Nightcrawler as was Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Heck, even Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year, Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice, or any of the french (Yves) Saint Laurents were more worthy than either Cooper or Carrell.

From the initial three-horse race with Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne, it has now come down to just the latter two, with Redmayne pulling ahead and likely to win. Redmayne had the more showy performance and the dedication would draw the support, although Keaton and Cumberbatch had the more nuanced roles.

BEST ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard, Deux Jours, Une Nuit
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Withespoon, Wild

Who Should Win: Julianne Moore

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore

Who Was A Surprise/Snub: Jessica Chastain was sunbbed for The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby; Rosamund Pike may have done her best work in Gone Girl but her portrayal was one note and rather boring.

This is Julianne Moore's to lose, with Marion Cotillard in second place. Interestingly, this category is where most of the nominees, except Felicity Jones, come from non-Best Picture/Director/Actor movies. What does that say?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons

Again, another lock-in. J.K. Simmons to lose. No doubt about it. That man was simultaneously scary and touching, and always riveting!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild

Kiera Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into The Woods

Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Who Was A Surprise/Snub: Meryl Streep was really just chewing scenary and Jessica Chastain should have been recognised for A Most Violent Year.

A great group of nominees but the Oscar is likely to be Patricia Arquette's to lose. Although Laura Dern would come in a close second despite her relatively brief screentime.

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo

Boyhood, Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher, E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson and Hugh Guinness
Nightcrawler, Dan Gilroy

Who Should Win: Wes Anderson and Hugh Guinness

Who Will Win: Wes Anderson and Hugh Guinness
Who Was Snubbed: The Dardenne Brothers for Deux Jours, Une Nuit and JC Chandor for A Most Violent Year. Both were simple in scope but complex in depth. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman's Foxcatcher was just a mess - and should it not be in Adapted Screenplay?

Most likey Wes Anderson will win this, and very deservedly so, as a consolation prize. Birdman and Boyhood did not have great scripts. but Gilroy's Nightcrawler was fresh and exciting.

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper, Jason Hall
The Imitation Game, Graham Moore
Inherent Vice, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Theory of Everything, Anthony McCarten
Whiplash, David Chazelle

Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who Will Win: Graham Moore

I think Thomas Pynchon's novel and words may be beyond the general Academy's liking, and so PT Anderson will lose out here too the next likely candidate - with all the prestige attached to the source and subject - will be Graham Moore's adaptation of Alan Turing's life. Curious to have Whiplash here too, although it has a slightly higher chance here than in the original screenplay.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

Who Should Win: Big Hero 6

Who Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Who Was Snubbed: The Lego Movie.

I wished I had watched The Boxtrolls. However, even without The Lego Movie (which I did watch but strangely did not review) here, I thought that Big Hero 6 had more heart (though less laughter), Dragon 2 was really bad, in my opinion, with one of the voice works and plot.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman, Emmanuel Lubezki
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Robert Yeoman
Ida, Łukasz Żal and Ryszard Lenczewski 
Mr. Turner, Dick Pope
Unbroken, Roger Deakins

Who Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki

Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki

That pseudo-one shot film and framing is what will Lubezki this award, although Yeoman had very gorgeous shots. Sadly, did not catch the rest, although Deakins' work have always been excellent.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game, Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar. Hans Zimmer
Mr Turner, Gary Yershon
The Theory of Everything, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat

Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat

Desplat's scores for Wes Anderson's movies have always been one of the highlights of the movies, it will be sad if he does not finally win an Oscar for his gorgeous work in The Grand Budapest Hotel. The bump from the 57th Grammy Awards should help his chances.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Glory", Selma (as a consolation) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Boyhood (Birdman if it was nominated)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
I'm calling it for The Grand Budapest Hotel or Into The Woods

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood for Into The Woods

Oscars 2014

Well, it's that time of the year again, and for once, in a long, long, time, I have watched all the movies that are nominated for Best Picture, which incidentally include nominees for all the other main categories. Those outside the Big 9 include Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for Blue Jasmine, and Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, respectively for August: Osage County.

In retrospect, my personal favourite movie of 2013 (as based on release date in America) was All Is Lost. Other favourites include 12 Years A Slave, Inside Llewyn Davis, Gravity, Blue Jasmine, Frances Ha (I watched it on the plane, but did not review it) and The Conjuring.

Like last year, below I give my predictions on who should win and who will win for this year's Academy Awards for the big 8 categories and my own personal favourites of Best Cinematography and Best Score (nothing interesting in the Animated Feature). Winners will be updated in red.

Best Picture
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Philips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

Who Should Win: 12 Years A Slave
Who Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

Of all the nominees, 12 Years A Slave is the one that has the grandeur and sweep on top of its stellar cast, director and screenplay. An important message also definitely booster its chances. The dark house will surely be American Hustle who has even more star-power and American goodwill towards its director and stars.

Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Martin Scorcese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Just that jaw-dropping, astounding opening tracking scene itself is more than enough to secure Cuaron his little bald man.

Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Who Should Win: Chwitel Ejiofor
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Robert Redford was robbed of his nomination, and if was nominated, he would have most likely given McConaughey a run for his money. Unfortunately for Ejiofor who I think gave a more powerful performance, the McConnaissance is too strong.

Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett

A slam dunk for Cate Blanchett since mid 2013. She has always been the one to beat, and sadly her closest competitor would be Amy Adams, with Judi Dench a distant third, and Bullock and Streep not really deserving their noms. The only thing to hurt Blanchett will be that awful letter from Woody Allen's daughter, Dylan Farrow.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Philips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Who Should Win: Jared Leto or Michael Fassbender
Who Will Win: Jared Leto

Jared Leto definitely deserves a win more than his co-star Matthew McConaughey. Besides one of the more showy role amongst the nominees, Leto gave an honestly touching and emotionally raw performance. Fassbender has an outside chance for his complex portrayal of what could be a stock villain.

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence  Lupita Nyong'o

Both Lawrence and Nyong'o gave the best performance of all these outstanding actresses. In my heart, I really think Lupita Nyong'o should win for her heartbreaking role, however, Lawrence gave one of her best performances in years (much better than the one in Silver Linings Playbook that nabbed her her last Oscar) and J-Law is definitely riding a much bigger wave of popularity than newbie Nyong'o. This is one category that I would like to be wrong. (edited 3 Mar 2014: glad I was wrong! Go Lupita!)

Best Writing - Original Screenplay
American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack
Her Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson

Who Should Win: Spike Jonze
Who Will Win: Spike Jonze

Her is pure originality. The concept may not be original but to pen that idea into a screenplay and have it so intimately and successfully translated to the big screen is an accolade by itself. Although American Hustle might sneak in here as a consolation prize to losing out Best Picture.

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Captain Philips, Billy Ray
Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years A Slave, John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

Who Should Win: John Ridley
Who Will Win: John Ridley

Ridley screenplay for 12 Years A Slave managed to find the heart and emotional core of Solomon's journey within the time frame of the movie. The narrative pace of the story was kept constant with sufficient tension to keep the viewer reeled in. Before Midnight may steal a consolation here as a combination of the trilogy.

Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster 一代宗师, Phillipe Le Sourd
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezski
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger Deakins

Who Should Win: Any of the above.
Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezski

Any of the above nominees deserve to win. They all have moments of absolutely stunning cinematography. The Grandmaster winning it will be a great boost for Wong Kar Wai, but Lubezski will most likely nab the price for the technical difficulty in filming Gravity itself.

Best Original Score
The Book Thief, John Williams
Gravity, Steven Price
Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr Banks, Thomas Newman

Who Should Win: -
Who Will Win: The Book Thief, John Williams  Gravity, Steven Price

I have only watched 3 of the 5 movies nominated here, and of these 3 I would think that Gravity's score was the best. However, they are matched against perennial titans Williams and Newman, and I have heard good things about Williams' score for The Book Thief. My vote would go to Williams just because he gave us, in my opinion, a rocking, fantastic, awesome soundtrack for Man of Steel.

Miscellaneous thoughts of other categories

Best Animated Feature: Frozen should be winning this award but a win for Miyazaki's last movie The Wind Rises would be awesome.

Best Song: Definitely Frozen's "Let It Go" with Her's "The Moon Song" in second place.

Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt was really good! Too bad The Grandmaster  did not make it past the long list.

Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby has the most sumptuous set although Her's production design was also very well done.

Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby might nail this too, although Amy Adams wardrobe in American Hustle was practically its own character. The Grandmaster gorgeous cheongsams should get some love and respect too, but perhaps not in the Western world.

Best Visual Effects: Smaug wins hands down, Gravity is more a directorial/filming feat rather than visual effect supremacy.

Oscars 2013

The 85th Academy Awards is just around the corner and here in Singapore all but two of the Best Pictures nominees - "Beasts of The Southern Wild" and "Django Unchained" - have been screened. I have watched a lot of movies over the past few months, and other than the aforementioned two pictures, I had watched all the other nominees. Same goes for the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director races. As we all know, the eventual winners get the their little gold man because of a multitude of reasons and not only because they are the BEST of their category. Politics, goodwill, marketing and gossip all play a part. For folks who follow this blog, it is no secret that I am not a fan of "Argo". Nothing against Ben Affleck, but I sincerely do not understand why "Argo" (and Affleck) is sweeping all the precursory awards. "Amour" is my favourite show of the year and if I have my way it would win everything it is nominated for. A bonus will be if Whedon's "The Avengers" get its sole award too! With all that out of the way, below is my list of who I think should win, and my predictions on who will win, the Big 8 awards and my personal 3 favourite categories of Best Animated Film, Best Cinematography and Best Original Score, come Oscar night. 

*Winners are highlighted in red. 6/11 predictions correct...damn, that's bad. 

BEST PICTURE

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Who Should Win: Amour or Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Argo 

Argo's win here will be inevitable given its sweep, but its lost will be greatly appreciated (even if to Lincoln).

BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Haneke, Amour

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg

In another world, Kathryn Bigelow should have been nominated for Zero Dark Thirty and win the award. In her absence, Haneke would be a befitting recipient, but alas, Amour is a little watched foreign language film. It will be a fight between Spielberg's historical behemoth and Lee's gorgeous CGI epic.

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis or Joaquin Phoenix

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

This is almost a lock for Day-Lewis amazing performance, although Phoenix was equally impressive in the underwatched The Master.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain

Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva

Riva is simply amazing in Amour, but if the Amour curse strikes, then I'd rather hope Chastain gets the award for a strong portrayal of an equally strong character. Unfortunately, as much as I think Lawrence is a gifted artiste, her role is Silver Linings Playbook lacked complexity and layers. But she has the goodwill factor going on for her. Going out on a limb, I predict the Oscar will go to Riva in respect for her work and her age.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Who Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones or Philip Seymour Hoffman

Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones

This is a close fight here. De Niro has the sympathetic vote and he may actually win it, but Jones was really outstanding in Lincoln. Hoffman is really more a co-lead than supporting actor and he may suffer for that. Arkin (and Goodman) was the best thing in Argo, but the others are too strong.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams. The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hatheway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Should Win: Anne Hatheway or Sally Field

Who Will Win: Anne Hatheway

This is another lock-in. Hatheway simply got the award just for her heartbreaking scene of "I Dreamed a Dream". However, Sally Field was consistent throughout the whole duration of Lincoln compared to Hatheway's rather short appearance as Fantine. But duration as never stopped anybody from winning. Poor Adams, always a bridesmaid.

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour, Michael Haneke

Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino

Flight, John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke or Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola or Mark Boal

Who Will Win: Mark Boal

Amour might actually win this as a consolation price (other than Best Foreign Film). Moonrise Kingdom was a really sweet, and smart, movie about young love but its quirkiness is also its downfall. Zero Dark Thirty was well written and narratively strong, but its controversy regarding torture is an opportunity for Amour to win this award.

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo, Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi, David Magee

Lincoln, Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Who Should Win: David Magee or Tony Kushner

Who Will Win: Chris Terrio

The Argo effect. If Magee or Kushner wins this, the other's respective director will win the BEST DIRECTOR, and Argo wins Best Picture. If Argo wins this, there is a small chance that it will lose the big award. Argo has a great story but the way it was written was tacky and unnecessarily dramatic. Cloud Atlas should have been at least nominated here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Who Should Win: ParaNorman

Who Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph

ParaNorman was smart, funny, touching and sincere, but adult-skewing. Wreck-It Ralph appealed to everybody and was entertaining too. Rise of The Guardians should have at least gotten a nomination. Its failure is a puzzle.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey

Django Unchained, Robert Richardson

Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda

Lincoln, Janusz Kamiński

Skyfall, Roger Deakins

Who Should Win: Roger Deakins

Who Will Win: Claudio Miranda

Deakins' name is not on the ballot so voters may just see Skyfall and give it a pass. On the other hand, Miranda has been sweeping the awards. Kamiński's work was also gorgeous in Lincoln.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli

Argo, Alexandre Desplat

Life of Pi, Mychael Danna

Lincoln, John Williams

Skyfall, Thomas Newman

Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat

Who Will Win: Mychael Danna

Desplat should win because I think he has done marvelous work throughout the year. His best score this year was actually for Rise of The Guardians, but his work for Zero Dark Thirty and Rust and Bone were also brilliant. His score for Argo was actually rather underwhelming compared to the others. Newman and Williams did not perform as well this year. Although Danna might actually sneak in a win since his score for Life of Pi was actually better than Desplat's Argo. (*note: Skyfall's "Skyfall" should surely win BEST SONG)