Lots of good films this year, but also lots of good acting in mediocre films. The acting categories seemed more or less certain this year, but given last year's surprise Olivia Colman's triumph over expected winner Glenn Close (yay!), we might still be in for a surprise. Although there should be some lock-ins this year, like Roger Deakins getting his second Best Cinematography Oscar and Honeyland winning Best Documentary.
Parasite was undoubtedly my personal favourite movie of the year. I would be thrilled if they swept everything! Imagine that! Best International Film and Best Picture. But it has tough competition from 1917. Unfortunately, The Irishman and Marriage Story has lost some traction. The black horse would be Toronto Film Fest Audience winner Jojo Rabbit and the box-office champ Joker.
This award show will sure be interesting! And if nothing else, if Brad Pitt wins, we will sure to get an awesome speech!
*Winners are highlighted in red.
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Parasite
Who Will Win: 1917
Who Could Win: Jojo Rabbit
Who Will Win: 1917
Who Could Win: Jojo Rabbit
This category is wide open and will be a fight between Sam Mende's 1917 and Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite. They could end up splitting the Best Picture and Best Director award like last year, but it will be hard to tell which it will go, but a foreign film winning Best Picture, even one as popular and beloved as Parasite will be quite anti-establishment.
BEST DIRECTOR
todd phillips
JOKERsam mendes
1917
quentin tarantino
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
bong joon-ho
PARASITE
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho
Who Will Win: Bong Joon-Ho
Who Could Win: Sam Mendes
Who Could Win: Sam Mendes
I am putting my money on Director Bong winning this, and 1917 getting Best Picture. If Sam Mendes wins Best Director, the final Best Picture award will be very, very exciting.
BEST ACTOR
ANTONIO BANDERAS
jonathan pryce
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Could Win: Adam Driver
This race has always been a two-horse race between Phoenix and Driver. Phoenix gave an utterly compelling and transformative performance in Joker, and undoubtedly it was his performance that propelled the film to its billion-dollar box office takings. Driver, on the other hand, had a fantastic emotive performance that showed his range as an actor and washed off the bad taste of Kylo Ren. But with minimal campaigning, and Marriage Story already falling out of the conversation, his chances may have dimmed.
Who Could Win: Adam Driver
This race has always been a two-horse race between Phoenix and Driver. Phoenix gave an utterly compelling and transformative performance in Joker, and undoubtedly it was his performance that propelled the film to its billion-dollar box office takings. Driver, on the other hand, had a fantastic emotive performance that showed his range as an actor and washed off the bad taste of Kylo Ren. But with minimal campaigning, and Marriage Story already falling out of the conversation, his chances may have dimmed.
BEST ACTRESS
cynthia erivo
harriet
renee zellweger
judy
Who Should Win: Renee Zellweger
Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger
Who Could Win: Scarlett Johansson
Zellweger seems like a lock here too, but then there was the cautionary tale of Glenn Close from last year. Zellweger was superb as Judy Garland. That was acting, and she also has a great narrative behind her. Her portrayal of Judy lifted the film to better heights than it deserved and she was riveting. Johansson was the underrated star of Marriage Story and the film only worked because of her and Driver together. Ronan has still not gotten a truly outstanding, breakthrough role yet, although she has consistently been phenomenon for her age; Theron was great as Megyn Kelly, but it was more imitation than acting; and I haven't watched Erivo's Harriet yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Joe Pesci
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt
Who Could Win: Tom Hanks
Who Could Win: Tom Hanks
Tom Hanks might get the sympathy win, but this will be Pitt's award to lose. If nothing else, it will be great to hear his speech! But of all five nominees, I thought Joe Pesci gave the best performance (and of his career too), but perhaps the anti-aging may have ticked some folks off. And also the Netflix TV-viewing experience of The Irishman may have diluted his cinematic power.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
margot robbie
Who Should Win: Florence Pugh
Who Will Win: Laura Dern
Who Could Win: Scarlett Johansson
Who Could Win: Scarlett Johansson
Laura Dern has this sewn up too, although her role in Marriage Story was arresting and a highlight, it did not seem much of a variance from her usual work. This win could be more about celebrating her body of work rather than this particular performance. Of all the performances, Pugh's and Johansson's were the ones that stood out for me. Pugh was a highlight of Little Women, even more so than Saoirse Ronan, and Greta Gerwig's screenplay and direction; whereas Johansson could be rewarded here if they snub her for Best Actress especially since her portrayal of the mother figure in Jojo Rabbit was emotionally rich but yet seemed effortless.
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, PARASITE
Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Who Could Win: Noah Baumbach, MARRIAGE STORY
Who Could Win: Noah Baumbach, MARRIAGE STORY
The traditional narrative will be that Tarantino will win the Oscar for Best Screenplay, especially given that he is unlikely going to win Best Director or Best Picture. However, there is a chance that Pitt might be the only winner from Once Upon a Time and Parasite comes in and sweep this too as it had been doing at the other preceding award shows. Although, Tarantino was not in the running at the WGA, so he still might have a chance here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Written by Anthony McCarten
Who Should Win: Anthony McCarten, THE TWO POPES
For my money, McCarten's screenplay for The Two Popes is the smartest of the contenders, but he is definitely a long shot. How many people actually watched the fantastic - and underrated - The Two Popes? It is very likely that the award will go to Gerwig or to Waititi to reward their respective films, with Gerwig being the more PC-choice. Although Waititi has also been sweeping up this award at the WGA and BAFTA. But between both, I'd bet on Gerwig. Waititi's Jojo Rabbit was a crowd-pleaser but it lacked intellectual and emotional depth; Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women was slightly more inventive and the writing was clearer than her directing.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
how to train your dragon: the hidden world
Who Should Win:
Who Will Win: I Lost My Body
Who Could Win: Toy Story 4
Who Could Win: Toy Story 4
For once, I had only watched one of the animated feature nominees, and really Toy Story 4 wasn't the best of the franchise. I have been hearing good things about I Lost My Body so my money is on that. Although Klaus did win the Annie and Missing Link won at the Golden Globes. But looks like it will not be Pixar again this year.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Robert Richardson
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins
Who Will Win: Roger Deakins
Who Could Win: Roger Deakins
Who Could Win: Roger Deakins
The sure lock-in for this year. Deakin's camera work for 1917 is unparalleled. It was even better than the gorgeously sumptuous work that he did for Blade Runner: 2049. But all the other contenders were great and utterly deserving. And yay for The Lighthouse!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat
John Williams
Who Should Win: Hildur Guonadottir
Who Will Win: Hildur Guonadottir
Who Could Win: Either of the Newmans, but maybe Thomas Newman
Who Could Win: Either of the Newmans, but maybe Thomas Newman
Guonadottir's score for Joker was fresh, interesting and really stood out. It bolstered Phoenix's performance and helped to propelled the narrative. The closest competitor would be Best Picture frontrunner 1917's Newman whose score also helped to pushed the story especially as we tracked through the harrowing stretches of the film.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
This could be Parasite's only win. But if it does not win here, then there will be an outside chance that it might actually nab the Best Picture award. If that is the case, Pain & Glory could just sweep in here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again", ROCKETMAN
Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
Elton and Bernie are going to win this. The only thing in their way would be whether the Academy's social-conscience will get in the way and award Cynthia Erivo for Stand Up.
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Kazu Hiro did it again, and his transformation of Theron to Megyn Kelly with subtle and undistracting prosthesis was superb. Similarly, this could be where voters choose to award Bombshell for its leading ladies.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Corpus christis
Poland
honeyland
North Macedonia
les miserables
France
South Korea
Who Should Win: Parasite
Who Will Win: Parasite
Who Could Win: Pain & Glory
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again", ROCKETMAN
Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
Elton and Bernie are going to win this. The only thing in their way would be whether the Academy's social-conscience will get in the way and award Cynthia Erivo for Stand Up.
BEST FILM EDITING
PARASITE
Yang Jin-mo
Parasite might start its sweep early and getting this could be a bellwether for it to get the top awards. The editing for this film was superb. A tight, relentless pacing that helped Bong Joon-ho tell a grossly riveting and engaging story. At the same time, the same could also be said for Thelma Schoonmaker who edited The Irishman and made that 3.5 hours movie into what it was.
PARASITE
That house - a character undo itself - was stunning. But a real challenge will come from Tarantino's authentic, vivid, lived-in experience of 60s LA from Once Upon a Time, or Mendes' invisibly complicated production design to allow for those amazing one shots in 1917.
This was a difficult category to call. It could end up to Little Women as a sympathy vote/win, although Jacqueline Durran's costuming for the girls and period were an outstanding factor in Gerwig's film. Although as for similar reasons above, Arianna Phillips could win for Once Upon a Time.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BOMBSHELL
Kazu Hiro did it again, and his transformation of Theron to Megyn Kelly with subtle and undistracting prosthesis was superb. Similarly, this could be where voters choose to award Bombshell for its leading ladies.
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