What a year it had been! Ravaged by the pandemic, this year's race started off with lots of trepidation with many indie films that came out earlier getting the opportunity to shine amidst the dearth of the usual box-office flares, e.g. Marvel, F9, etc. These include early breakouts like Never, Rarely, Sometime, Always (with breakout star Sidney Flanigan), First Cow and Palm Springs. Then there were also the more traditional fares like I'm Thinking of Ending Things (that was one hell of a smart script/adapted screenplay and great acting by the four main cast) and Da 5 Bloods (was it a Spike Lee spite that prevented Delroy Lindo from getting more love?) that were shown earlier in the year, but perhaps lost to the conversation due to the prolonged eligibility period.
And then sometime towards the end of the year and into 2021, things got back to more familiar grounds with the big hitters steadily coming out one after the another. These studios and PR folks sure knew what they were doing, and the dice were cast. The only thing missing were the lack of any big, epic, hollywood-esque releases.
Thankfully, this year's race is looking like it may contain quite a number of surprises, given that not many of the "big" categories are locked. It seemed that only Yun-Jung Youn winning Best Supporting Actress is the one sure thing. I would also boldly add Chloe Zhao for Best Director and Nomadland for Best Picture as almost sure-things.
*Winners are highlighted in red.
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Nomadland
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Who Could Win: Minari
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Who Could Win: Minari
Nomadland was clearly, to me, absolutely amaziing. A small film that felt intimate yet so grand in its scope and view. Throw in a nuanced, layered performance by Frances McDormand, stunning gorgeous cinematography by Joshua James Richard, and a of-the moment, topical narrative, and the result is a best picture winner. Clear and beyond the best film of the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Issac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennel, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Who Should Win: Chloe Zhao
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao
Who Could Win: Thomas Vinterberg
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao
Who Could Win: Thomas Vinterberg
As above, Zhao was the driving force behind Nomadland. She spearheaded the team that created a fantastic film that was relevant but yet accessible. Her vision for a non-traditional narrative drove the simple telling of a complicated character living - and surviving - through these trying times.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Who Should Win: Anthony Hopkins
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
Who Could Win: Riz Ahmed
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
Who Could Win: Riz Ahmed
Ma Rainey's was shut out of a Best Picture nomination, so other than potential Best Hair and Makeup, and Best Costumes wins, its acting nominations are its best chances. The narrative for Boseman has been strong and is the driving force behind his potential win. However, the momentum seemed to have slowed in the build up to the Oscars with Hopkins winning the BAFTA and Ahmed winning the Indie Spirit awards. In my opinion, Hopkins gave the best performance of the lot. It was truly the definition of a tour de force, and if we had only based solely on performance Hopkins definitely deserves to win. Boseman had that one great scene in Ma Rainey's but Hopkins was riveting throughout. Both men did not have much of an awards campaign, unlike Ahmed who has been everywhere and that could help him to sneak in a win.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States of America vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
Who Could Win: Viola Davis
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
Who Could Win: Viola Davis
The toughest race to call. The two actresses with the least chance would be Day and Kirby. Day had moments of brilliance as Billie Holiday but it was mainly during the singing-segments. Her acting itself was uneven per se and the even more uneven screenplay and direction did not help her at all. And if Kirby had won a BAFTA, her chances may have improved, but without that win, her excellent performance, especially in that stunning one-take opening sequence is not enough to propel her further. That leaves us with the three frontrunners, McDormand, Mulligan and Davis. Mulligan is the only one of them that has not won an Oscar yet, so there is a narrative there. Nonetheless, I thought her performance in Promising Young Woman was phenomenal and easily the best of her career. McDormand owned Nomadland and she gave a nuanced, fine-tunely performance that was empathetic and engaging. Lastly, although Davis was a powerhouse but her role was decidedly smaller and that could work against her. On the other hand, her last Oscar was for Best Supporting Actress and the Academy (like the SAG) might choose to reward her this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who Should Win: Paul Raci
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Could Win: Paul Raci
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Could Win: Paul Raci
This was initially Kaluuya's to lose, until the Academy threw a curve ball and added Stanfield to the mix. Judas was a two-hander with both men as co-leads, but Kaluuya perhaps more appropriately a supporting role. But now with both of them in the same category, there is a risk of splitting the votes and either Cohen or Raci may sneak in for the win. Cohen was a revelation in Chicago and Raci had an effortless ease in his naturalistic performance in Sound of Metal. Although the Academy might want to reward Borat - and Cohen - and it will either be through here, Best Supporting Actress or Best Adapted Screenplay (and this category might have the highest chance).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yun-jung Youn, Minari
Who Should Win: Yun-jung Youn
Who Will Win: Yun-jung Youn
Who Could Win: Olivia Colman or Maria Bakalova
Who Will Win: Yun-jung Youn
Who Could Win: Olivia Colman or Maria Bakalova
Granted, I have not watch two of the five performances nominated, but given that Youn has been sweeping all the major precursor awards, this is very likely the closest thing to a lock. People would really like to see her give another great speech. Performance-wise she was easily the best thing in an overall excellent film. Her role was funny, heartwarming and utterly memorable and the Academy will surely want to reward the little-movie-that-could!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Could Win: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Could Win: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Everybody loves a Sorkin script. Crackling smart, sharply witty and dense yet rhythmic, a Sorkin screenplay is always a highlight of the projects that he does. However, Fennell's debut effort was original, refreshing, entertaining and accessible to the masses. Chicago might not win anything on Oscar night, so if the Academy is thinking of spreading the wealth, Sorkin might get another writing Oscar.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
White Tiger
Who Should Win: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Who Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen, et al, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Who Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen, et al, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
A tough category to call. Nomadland might be on a winning streak and sweep up all its nomination. But of the three films that I had watched, The Father seemed to be the strongest in terms of translation to a film. It felt like a play but yet it had elements that made it seemed unlike a play, which was unlike Miami that still felt strongly like we were on stage following the actors.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Who Should Win: Soul
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Wolfwalkers was beautifully hand-drawn and rendered with a lovely story at its heart, but it will be tough to beat the beloved Pixar's Soul who had heart, humour, smarts, fancy technical effects and appeal across all four quadrants. And it is more likely that voters would have watched Soul then searched out Wolfwalkers on AppleTV+ or their screeners.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round, Denmark
Better Days, Hong Kong
Collective, Romania
The Man Who Sold His Skin, Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Who Should Win: Another Round
Who Will Win: Another Round
Who Could Win: Another Round
Who Will Win: Another Round
Who Could Win: Another Round
Thomas Vinterberg's crowd pleaser has been winning most of the precursor awards and with its named-pedigree, star-power, tragic backstory, this jubilant celebration of life will likely take home the statuette here. Just for the record, I thought Taiwan's shortlisted A Sun was excellent!
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Crip Camp
Time
Who Should Win: Collective
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Who Could Win: Collective
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Who Could Win: Collective
My Octopus Teacher seemed to be the hot favourite in this category, but in my opinion it felt like the weakest of the three docus that I watched. Collective was grim but topical and urgent; The Mole Agent was interesting directed and heartwarming, but perhaps a bit too light on its purpose.
BEST ORIGNAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods, Terence Blanchard
Mank, Trent Raznor and Atticus Ross
Minari, Emile Mosseri
News of the World, James Newton Howard
Soul, Trent Raznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Baptiste
Who Should Win: Soul
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Could Win: Da 5 Bloods
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Could Win: Da 5 Bloods
I really enjoyed the soundtrack of all five films, but the ones that left the deepest impression were Soul, Minari and Da 5 Bloods. Raznor, Ross and Baptiste will most likely win the award for their jazz-inspired score that really integrated with the film and helped moved the narrative along. Vote splitting will unlikely to occur here given that Mank and Soul were two different films with very different soundscapes. Blanchard's score was also jazz-infused and sympathy for the film's only nomination may also increase its voters' tally.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of the Fire Saga
"Io Si (Seen)", Life Ahead
"Speak Now", One Night in Miami
Who Should Win: Life Ahead
Who Will Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Who Could Win: One Night in Miami
Who Will Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Who Could Win: One Night in Miami
To be honest, I can't really recall much of any of these nominees. They are definitely no Shallow. I do remember thining "Fight for You" was an appropriate end-of-show song for Judas but my vote will be to "Io Si (Seen)" only just because Diane Warren is long overdue for a win!
BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who Could Win: Mank
Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who Could Win: Mank
Sound was such a crucial element in Sound of Metal and the sound design was fantastic. It helped to situate the audience into the deaf/hearing-impaired audience and really puts you into the headspace of Riz Ahmed's lead character. Mank would be a close contender for its recreation of a period-authentic film sound. That odd, slightly scratchy sound quality reminiscence of old black and white Hollywood.
BEST PRODUCTION
Who Should Win: Mank
Who Will Win: Mank
Who Could Win: Tenet or News of the World
Who Will Win: Mank
Who Could Win: Tenet or News of the World
The realistic recreation of the 40s itself should warrant the team from Mank the win, but the whole recreation of Hearst Castle surely cemented their victory. News of the World had a sumptuous set and it may eked out a sympathetic win here. Similarly for Christopher Nolan's over-complicated flop Tenet. The set design for The Father was crucial in its replication of Hopkin's character's mindscape, but compared to Mank and News it might seemed a bit smaller in scope and vision.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
Dariusz Wolski, News of the World
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Phedon Papamichael, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Should Win: Joshua James Richards
Who Will Win: Joshua James Richards
Who Could Win: Erik Messerschmidt
Who Will Win: Joshua James Richards
Who Could Win: Erik Messerschmidt
My favourite technical category and all the nominees this year did an excellent job. But the most outstanding lensing surely had to be by Richards. The beautiful wide-angled outdoor shots and magic hour colours were truly stunning. Added to that was the brief indoor lighting over the piano and dining table which were also warm and intimate. Richards' closest competitor would be Messerschmidt for his sumptuous black and white cinematography of Mank. No details were lost in the monochromatic filming and it was as rich as any colour film.
BEST FILM EDITING
Who Should Win: The Father
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Who Could Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Who Could Win: Promising Young Woman
Editing for The Father was crucial in its narrative structure to visually - and logically - depict the mindscape of an elderly man in cognitive decline. However, it never got confusing to us as an audience and we are always firmly rooted in the understanding of what was real and what was fiction despite the deliberate confusion generated by Florian Zeller. Nomadland's editing was by Zhao too and she had singularly created her vision to tell a story, and that vision was clear, sharp and fully realised. As for Promising Young Woman, the flow of the story was well-paced and the editing smartly balanced between thriller/horror suspense and rom-com/dramatic tension.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mulan
Pinocchio
Who Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Ma Rainey's is a frontrunner in this category and for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Emma. had gorgeous Victorian costumes and it was no surprise that they got nominated, and Mank's period costumes - and again the Hearst Castle party scene stood out - was authentic and beautifully captured. But Viola Davis' outfits really stood out and actively helped her to embody the brassiness and energy of Ma Rainey herself. It is a pity I had not seen Pinocchio though.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Who Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Who Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
And again, Davis' wig, fat suit, and heavy makeup really helped her to be Ma Rainey. The fact that the film had also won the guild award and most of the precursors will definitely aid in its momentum towards Oscar glory. Hillbilly Elegy is here surely for Close's transformation but seeing that the film is so widely derided, it is hard to imagine it winning.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Who Should Win: The Midnight Sky
Who Will Win: The Midnight Sky
Who Could Win: Tenet
Who Will Win: The Midnight Sky
Who Could Win: Tenet
Unfortunately, this looks like it is going to be a two-horse race between The Midnight Sky and Tenet. The visual effects in the former had already been seen and done in Gravity, but that one scene with the blood splatter in zero-gravity was truly gorgeous. Tenet for all its flaw did have exception practical and CGI effects, and again sympathy voting could go in Nolan's favour.
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