6 March 2023

95th Academy Awards (Oscars 2023)


From March 2022 till March 2023, I had watched 54 films. Of which, for the first time, I had watch more than one movie more than once in the cinema: The Menu, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water. There were lots of good films these years and as usual, foreign-language films (or films by foreign directors) remained exciting and different from the standard usually Hollywood fare - both popcorn flicks and art-house award contenders.

Easily, my favourite films of the year were TÁR and Aftersun. The former was a masterpiece in directing by Todd Field and acting by Cate Blanchett. They were both at the absolute top of their game, creating a tense, taut, tight, unflinching, un-nerving, un-apologetic psychological thriller and character study that was was both topical to the present and relevant to the future. #IStandByLydiaTár!

Aftersun, on the other hand, was a quiet, unassuming gem. A stunner of a debut that continued to haunt me, even till now, 3 months after I had watched it. A brilliant debut by writer/director Charlotte Wells that examined the power of memory through cinema, but also devastatingly painted a picture of despair and lost that hurt immensely through its lens and its leading man, Paul Mescal.

Upfront, the big Oscar frontrunner, Everything Everywhere All at Once was not my favourite movie of the year. It does not even make my top 5. When I first watched it back in April 2022, I described it as an "entertaining film" with a "great concept" and a "brilliant" first act, but "not an entirely original" film. And I still stand by it. 

I can appreciate why most western culture seemed utterly enamoured by the film. It was representational and it was inspirational to them. But from an Asian (non-American/Western) perspective, the familial storyline was rote and routine; from an absurdist sci-fi POV (read: Douglas Adams, Christopher Moore, Terry Pratchett, etc), the multiverse aspect and absurdist comedy was unoriginal and uninspiring; and lastly, the language was an ear-sore for native speakers - Michelle Yeoh's character was obviously on point, as was Stephanie Hsu's as a second-generation American-born Asian but Ke Huy Quan that was grating and took any merit out of his performance which every award body (except for the BAFTAs) seemed to be praising (cynically: more for the narrative than the actual acting?). 

Nonetheless, Yeoh was still the best thing of the film, and what the Daniels did with the budget they had was fascinating and highly laudable. The editing was top notch and deserved the Oscar nomination, but Costume? Song? Score? (both of which Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio were snubbed!);  Two Supporting Actresses??! (Any of the women from Women Talking were more deserving!); Even Original Screenplay is debatable (see above re: originality; The Menu or Nope would have been better choices). 

One thing though, this year's Oscars seemed to be more unpredictable than usual, especially in all the big awards. The acting races has no clear front runner yet except for Ke (and in that respect, we can all still hope for a big upset!). The directors seemed to be poised to go the Daniels but never count out Steve Spielberg or Field. Similarly, EEAO may be the Best Picture leader, but there is always previous frontrunner, The Fabelmans, Martin McDonagh's crowd-pleaser, The Banshees of Inisherin, and the big underdog, All Quiet on the Western Front.

A last shout out to Hong Chau, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Angela Bassett, Mrs Harris Goes to Paris, Marcel the Shell, Corsage and Vicky Krieps, all the onscreen vomiting this year (Triangle of Sadness and Babylon)... And here are my Oscar predictions:

*Winners are highlighted in red. 


BEST PICTURE



Who Should Win: TÁR
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Any of the films other than Elvis and EEAO deserve to win the big prize. Women Talking was devastating, Triangle of Sadness was elevated cringe at its auteuristic best, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: TWOW were absolute top notch entertainment, The Banshees of Inisherin was an acting showcase, The Fabelmans was a feel good, family friendly entertainment with superb technicals, AQOTWF was an unrated war-film that was gorgeous, stunning and emotionally resonant, and TÁR was simply a masterpiece. Elvis was a gaudy mess with an over-rated performance and EEAO was just not my cup of tea. 


BEST DIRECTOR

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Who Should Win: Todd Field
Who Will Win: The Daniels
Who Could Win: Steven Spielberg

The DGA gave their top award to The Daniels so they are most likely going to win this. What they had achieved with what they were given was undoubtedly stunning. However, in terms of skill, Field and Spielberg were way ahead of them. Field created a masterpiece as was agreed by many of his peers: Martin Scorsese, Pedro Almodóvar, Alfonso Cuarón and Paul Thomas Anderson; Spielberg's most personal film was filled with personal touches and filmed with such tenderness and longing and artistry. Östlund got the Palme d'Or and sneaked in a nomination, and I think that is as well as he will do here, and McDonagh may just have to settle for Best Original Screenplay despite directing his cast to four acting nominations.


BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Who Should Win: Colin Farrell
Who Will Win: Brendan Fraser
Who Could Win: Austin Butler

This is going to be a three-horse race. Austin Butler vs Colin Farrell vs Brendan Fraser. Sorry Paul Mescal, too young and too little-watched. Sorry, Bill Nighy, though I have not watched Living yet, if the BAFTAs did not give it to you, and Living is even smaller than Aftersun, it will not be your turn. Fraser has the best narrative and the showiest performance, with a final act that was pure emotional manipulation. The Whale's lack of nominations, may hurt his chances though. Farrell has a great narrative too - comeback kid giving strong to great performance steadily over the years - but although his performance was pure acting, the fact that was no transformative, losing-myself-in-the-role arc will definitely hurt him. And Butler, may just go the way of Rami Malek - winning an Oscar for a musical biography for a larger than life character, just because.


BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Could Win: Michelle Yeoh

Another tight Best Actress race, but this time clearly between Blanchett for her demanding, powerhouse performance who had swept every single critic award, and Yeoh, who won the SAG, indicating support from the acting branch. However, with the whole academy voting, it might just go - very deservedly - to the best acting performance which is Blanchett's Lydia Tár. It will be a mighty upset if the Riseborough debacle resulted in a win. Sorry, de Armas - too many bad reviews for me to want to go watch Blond.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans


Who Should Win: Brendan Gleason
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Who Could Win: Barry Keoghan or Judd Hirsch

If any category (other than Best VFX) has a lock, it will be this. Ke Huy Quan has been dominating the awards circuit and this is his to lose. Whether deservingly or not. Either of the Banshees boys could act circles around Ke, and Keoghan actually managed to score a win at the BAFTAs. Hirsch stole that 15 minutes or so that he was in The Fabelmans and without Gleeson that would have been no one for Farrell to act oppposite of.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Hong Chau, The Whale

Who Should Win: Angela Bassett
Who Will Win: Angela Bassett
Who Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis or Kerry Condon

It was a crime that none of the ladies from Women Talking were nominated! Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley were scene stealers and had so much raw intensity and vulnerability (Rooney Mara was in the running for Lead Actress). Definitely more than the Hsu or Curtis, but that is what the EEAO momentum wrought. Nonetheless, Bassett will be the most deserving winner. She was strong and commanding, and one of the best bits of a Marvel film. And it is time not only to give her what she deserved, but also to legitimise MCU/superhero films. Hong Chau's time will undoubtedly come one day, but not this year. Condon and Curtis fresh off a BAFTA and SAG win respectively will be Bassett's closest competitor.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Who Should Win: Todd Field, TAR or Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Who Will Win: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Who Could Win: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

A contentious category. McDonagh might just win this because this might the only award Banshees will get. Although the screenplay does have its own merits, the first two acts were better than the last act. Field's screenplay was timely, current and insightful, although his directing and Blanchett's performance might overwhelm the script itself. Similarly for Ostlund's Triangle, although the skewering of the rich and class-warfare was presented in an original manner. Tony Kushner and Spielberg's The Fabelmans was smartly written and genuinely touching, but it lacked a certain flair. As for the Daniels, I don't think there was anything original about the script, but the majority of voters will likely think otherwise.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Living


Who Should Win: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Who Will Win: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Who Could Win: Kazuo Ishiguro, Living or Rian Johnson, Glass Onion

Just like McDonagh above, this might be the only award Polley and Women Talking bring home. But it will nonetheless be truly deserving for a film that was devastatingly haunting and unexpectantly tender and hopeful beneath the brutality. Ishiguro might win just because of his name - though not winning at homeground BAFTA might be to his disadvantage; everybody loves Johnson and Glass Onion was a crowd pleaser, but it might be too much of a light-weight to win an Oscar. Similarly, everybody loved Top Gun, but the screenplay was basic and the weakest part of the film. All Quiet might be the dark horse to come in to sweep the awards as what it had been doing in Europe.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast

Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Who Could Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes on

Sorry to Dreamworks and Disney, but this race is between Pinocchio - which has been sweeping the precursors and truly deserved more nominations - and the sweetly tender, live-action/stop motion Marcel. Pinocchio will have the edge not only because of its pedigree and underlying starpower, but it was also a phenomenally engaging and touching retelling and reimagining of a classic.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Argentina 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Could Win: Close or Argentina 1985

Unfortunately, I had only managed to watch 2 out of the 5 nominees, and both were brilliant but All Quiet definitely has the edge over the smaller and more intimate Close. Although Argentina 1965 might be the black horse as it did pick up some of the precursors over All Quiet.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All That Breathes
All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House made of Splinters
Navalny

Who Should Win: -
Who Will Win: Nalvany
Who Could Win: All the Beauty and Bloodshed

Again, I did not get to watch any of the nominees this year, but from the buzz it seemed to be either previous winner, Laura Poitras for All the Beauty and Bloodshed, topical Russian documentary Navalny or the crowdpleasing Fire of Love.


BEST ORIGNAL SCORE

Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
The Fabelmans, John Williams

Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
Who Will Win: The Fabelmans, John Williams
Who Could Win: Babylon, Justin Hurwitz

One of the many categories that EEAO did not deserve to be nominated in. Bertelmann's score for All Quiet was memorable and haunting. As was Hurwitz's score for Babylon, which was one of the few best things of the film. Although it was too derivative of his work from La La Land and Whiplash to be "original". Burwell's score was beautiful and sweeping but did not stand out. As for Williams, he is the biggest name here, and his name recognition alone may carry him over the threshold to win the Oscar. That being said, Williams' score was honestly beautiful and helped to carry the emotional weight of Spielberg's story.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Applause", Tell it Like a Woman
"Hold my Hand", Top Gun: Maverick 
"Naatu Naatu", RRR

Who Should Win: "Hold my Hand"
Who Will Win: "Naatu Naatu"
Who Could Win: "Naatu Naatu"

From all the buzz, this will be "Naatu Naatu"'s to lose. Sorry Lady Gaga and Rihanna. And sorry again, Diane Warren.


BEST SOUND


Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

This might be the only place where Top Gun will get its Oscar. Everybody loves the sounds of fast planes and sonic booms. Although the soundscape of the war epic All Quiet might sneak in a craft sweep.


BEST PRODUCTION


Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Will Win: Babylon
Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front or Elvis

If anything, Babylon had its sets going for it. The opening sequence was a stunner as were the literal sets designed for the movies-within-a-movie. However, the period recreation of Elvis, was a standout and those were fabulous trenches in All Quiet. Just like the above, All Quiet might do a BAFTA and sweep the crafts.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji
Elvis, Mandy Walker
Empire of Light, Roger Deakins
TÁR, Florian Hoffmeister

Who Should Win: James Friend
Who Will Win: James Friend
Who Could Win: Mandy Walker

Deakins cinematography, especially that spectacular fireworks scene, was extraordinary, but unfortunately Empire of Light was more of a miss. Also, did not catch Bardo but the buzz around it was similar, in that, Khondji's cinematography was a highlight. Perhaps these two names should have been swapped out for The Batman's Greig Fraser and Top Gun: Maverick's Claudio Miranda. Walker has a likely chance to make history as the first woman to win this award, however Elvis' cinematography maybe not be the most striking thing about the film. Hoffmeister's unique cinematography for TAR actually helped to immerse the audience into the psyche of the protagonist with it brutalistic, flat presentation. However, it will be Friend's stunning capture for All Quiet that deserves the Oscar this year.


BEST FILM EDITING

Who Should Win: TAR
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Could Win: Elvis

Some films are made in the editing room of which the nightmare, intense psychological thriller TAR and multiverse, timeline jumping EEAO definitely made the case for that. Elvis also benefitted from fancy editing. And which ever film that wins this early award, would surely be a frontrunner for Best Picture. Therefore, it will most likely be EEAO's to lose.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN


Who Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Jenny Beavan should just win for all the couture she designed for Mrs Harris. Similarly Ruth Carter's designs and imagination for Wakanda was outstanding and the early funeral scene was a total standout. However, Elvis and EEAO have the most buzz with the former having the most glitz and the latter the wackiest. Elvis will likely sweep this and Best Makeup and Hairstyling in a nod to the excesses of Baz Lurhman's vision.


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING


Who Should Win: The Whale
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

The Whale would be the front runner for its utter transformation of Brenden Fraser, and if it does win here, Fraser would have a leg up for Best Actor. However, to some, the grotesque focus and fat-shaming might deter them, and instead Elvis will notch another win for its transformation of Austin Butler. The winner here will likely also be the Best Actor winner. Although All Quiet might swoop in again.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS


Who Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Who Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Who Could Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

The only slam dunk of the year. 
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